From the filed FDD — automated extraction, check the source
2026 FDD
SBA-eligible · directory code S3201 since 2018
PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE
Bakery-cafes & bagels · parent company: not identified
Panera Bread is a fast-casual bakery-cafe chain serving soups, salads, sandwiches, and fresh-baked breads and pastries. A franchisee develops and operates full-size cafes with dine-in, drive-thru, and digital ordering, typically committing to multiple units in a market.
PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE net unit count grew 2.9% over 2023–2025 per its FDD Item 20.
New to franchising? Start here
A franchise is a business where you (the franchisee) pay a company (the franchisor) for the right to open and run a location using their brand and system — think a local Anytime Fitness or Taco John's owned by a small-business owner, not the corporation.
Before you can buy in, U.S. law requires the franchisor to give you a Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD) — a long legal filing covering its fees, finances, and history. Most numbers on this page come from that document; others come from federal SBA loan records and labor and census data, each labelled with its source:
- Franchise fee — the one-time cost to buy in.
- Royalty — the ongoing cut of your sales you pay the franchisor.
- Item 20 — how many locations opened, transferred and left the system, the main basis for our verdict, which rates how strong the disclosed record is, or says when the system is too new, the filing too old, or the disclosure too thin to judge.
Our rating · opinion
Proven & steady
A real track record, solid rather than standout. Units grew 3% (2023–2025: 2,151 → 2,214); the fiscal 2025 exit rate was 2.9%, below the 4.6% median across 133 comparable systems (food & dining).
Exit rate · fiscal 2025
2.9%
vs 4.6% median across 133 comparable systems (food & dining)
Cost to open
$1.3M–$4.6M
Item 7 total investment range
SBA loan losses
Too few to rate
1 seasoned resolved loans; 30 needed
Market density · Arizona
Typical density
13% thinner than the national average
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Data as of 2026-10-29. Figures come from PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE's public FDD filings (latest: MN 2026, extracted 2026-07-30) and SBA FOIA loan records (through FY2026), extracted by us and possibly containing errors. The rating is our opinion, not investment, legal, or tax advice. Franchisor or owner and see something wrong? Report a correction — we review every request.
What each source says
FDD record · SBA loans · model · auditor
The sources broadly agree, and the verdict follows the FDD's operating record.
FDD record · Item 20
Steady operating record
Units grew 3% (2023–2025: 2,151 → 2,214); exit rate 2.9% (fiscal 2025) vs 4.6% median.
SBA loans · vs same-year loans
Too few seasoned loans
1 resolved loans approved by FY2020; 30 needed.
Modeled risk
Lower risk
Directional only — too few seasoned loans to check it.
Auditor opinion · Item 21
Clean opinion
Unqualified audit, 2026 FDD. Says nothing about franchisee results.
Behind the verdict
the record, factor by factor · Item 20
latest consecutive years · Item 20 Table 1
terminations + ceased-ops vs. all exits · Table 3
transfers vs. base · Table 3
actual vs. projected openings · Table 5
Item 19 disclosure + completeness · shown, not counted in the verdict
Systemwide units
2023–2025
Survival record
FDD Item 20 · outlet status by year
In fiscal 2025, 32 of 1,105 franchised outlets left the system — an exit rate of 2.9% (fiscal 2025), vs a 4.6% median across 133 comparable systems (food & dining). An exit is not a failure: this counts terminations, non-renewals and "ceased — other reasons" as reported, and excludes transfers to new owners.
Show the outlet tables ↓Hide the evidence ↑
| Status (FTC) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outlets at start | 2,094 | 2,151 | 2,185 |
| Opened | 47 | 24 | 33 |
| Transfers | 35 | 16 | 3 |
| Terminations | 12 | 18 | 32 |
| Non-renewals | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reacquired by franchisor | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| Ceased — other reasons | 11 | 3 | 0 |
| Outlets at end | 2,151 | 2,185 | 2,214 |
| Net change | +57 | +34 | +29 |
The franchisor's own finances
FDD ITEM 21 · AUDITED STATEMENTS · 2026 FDD
KPMG LLP (principal auditor of Panera Brands, Inc.; Grant Thornton LLP audited subsidiary Caribou Coffee Company, Inc.) gave an unmodified (clean) opinion on the statements in the 2026 FDD; revenue fell 7% from FY2023 to FY2025 and it reported a net loss in FY2025.
This is the company selling the franchise, not any franchisee. A clean opinion means the statements are fairly presented — not that the business is healthy.
Audit opinion
Unmodified (clean) opinion
KPMG LLP (principal auditor of Panera Brands, Inc.; Grant Thornton LLP audited subsidiary Caribou Coffee Company, Inc.)
Revenue · FY2025
$4.61B
p. 307 · matched to statement
Net income · FY2025
−$435.7M
p. 307 · matched to statement
Where FY2025 revenue came from
5% royalties
initial-fee share not extracted
Show the statement figures ↓Hide the evidence ↑
| Fiscal year | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $4.95Bp. 307 · matched to statement | $4.69Bp. 307 · matched to statement | $4.61Bp. 307 · matched to statement |
| Royalty revenue | $232.7Mp. 307 · matched to statement | $225.6Mp. 307 · matched to statement | $221.0Mp. 307 · matched to statement |
| Net income (loss) | $173.1Mp. 307 · matched to statement | $133.6Mp. 307 · matched to statement | −$435.7Mp. 307 · matched to statement |
| Equity (deficit) at year end | not extracted | $5.22Bp. 306 | $4.76Bp. 306 |
| Cash at year end | not extracted | $127.0Mp. 306 | $89.1Mp. 306 |
The lender's view
SBA 7(a)/504 loan outcomes · compared with franchise loans of the same years
Banks have made 5 SBA-backed loans to PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE franchisees since 2017. Only 1 of its loans approved by FY2020 have resolved — fewer than the 30 we need to compare it fairly with other franchise loans, so we don't rate it.
All-time, 0 of 1 resolved loans charged off (0.0%). That raw figure mixes every approval year since 2017 — loans made in 2006–08 failed at several times the rate of loans made in 2010–13 across all franchises — so it is shown as evidence, not as the score. 80% of the brand's loans have not resolved yet.
—
1 seasoned resolved · 30 needed
0.0%
0 of 1 resolved, every approval year
—
charged-off $ ÷ approved $, defaulted loans
$566,500
what recent franchisees borrowed
—
shown with 10+ defaults
0 vs 2
distinct banks — fewer than FY16–20 (loan volume and SBA name coding affect this)
Charge-off rate by loan approval year (%) · dashed line = all franchise loans that year
Loan performance by state
SOURCE: SBA 7(a)/504 FOIA LOAN DATA (DATA.SBA.GOV), FY1991–PRESENT · MATCHED TO PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE BY SBA FRANCHISE NAME/CODE · RESOLVED = CHARGED-OFF + PAID-IN-FULL · EXPECTED = SAME-YEAR RATE ACROSS ALL SBA FRANCHISE LOANS, LOANS ≥ ~6 YEARS OLD
What it costs — and what it drags
FDD Items 5–7 · fees, investment, royalty
Buying in means a $50,000 franchise fee (Item 5) and a total investment of $1.3M–$4.6M (Item 7). The franchisor publishes an earnings claim (Item 19) — read its methodology closely.
To open (Item 7)
$1.3M–$4.6M
all-in investment range
Franchise fee (Item 5)
$50,000
upfront, one-time
Royalty (Item 6)
5%
of sales, ongoing
Starts at the Item 19 average of $2.6M from PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE’s latest FDD. Read which units built that figure, then check it with current and former owners.
Royalty you'd pay / yr
$130K
5% of sales, before profit
Over a 10-yr term
$1.3M
royalties alone, excl. ad fund
This estimate is computed by software from the brand's public filings and any inputs you enter. No CPA prepared it for you and no assurance is provided on it. Actual results will differ, and the differences may be material.
This is not profit. It covers what the FDD fixes: what you put in, and the royalty you owe on sales. Your take-home depends on food and packaging cost, labor, rent, and the months to breakeven, none of which the FDD fixes for your unit (some Item 19s include cost data — read it).
Build a real pro-forma for PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE with a buyer-paid CPAHow the earnings claim is built
FDD ITEM 19 · BASIS · 2026 FDD
The headline figure is Average Net Sales (Company-owned and Franchisee-owned Bakery-Cafes) for 52-week FY ended Dec 30, 2025, for 2,160 of 2,214 outlets open at year end, leaving out not open the entire fiscal year, Non-Traditional Bakery-Cafes, delivery-only locations.
Graded on three things the filing states: coverage (2 points if the figure covers at least 75% of the units it is compared with, 1 point for 50–75%), centre (2 points if it prints both a median and a mean, 1 for one of them), and costs (2 points for costs through a profit line or full cost detail, 1 for some cost items). 5–6 points = More complete, 3–4 = Partial, 0–2 = Limited. The grade describes the disclosure, not the business.
Show the basis ↓Hide the evidence ↑
| What is measured | Average Net Sales (Company-owned and Franchisee-owned Bakery-Cafes) (net sales) |
| Period | 52-week FY ended Dec 30, 2025 |
| Whose results | Franchised and company-owned outlets together |
| Units included | 2,160 of 2,214 outlets at the end of FY2025 (Item 20) |
| Left out |
|
| Average (mean) | $2.6M |
| Median | not printed |
| Costs shown | Some cost items only |
| Where | p. 63 (Item 19 runs pp. 63–65) |
| The filing's words | “the mean averages of the reported annual Net Sales of 1,087 company-owned Bakery-Cafes and 1,073 Franchisee-owned Bakery-Cafes open during the entire fiscal year ending December 30, 2025” |
Modeled risk
FDD Risk Score · a prediction from disclosure and loan-file features
The model puts this brand in its lower-risk band — but this brand has too few seasoned SBA loans to check the score against, so read it as a band, not a number.
Risk percentile
Lower risk
Directional · no point estimate
Modeled · vs same-year loans
band only
too few seasoned loans to check
Top drivers: System size (log units) (lowers) · Investment ceiling (log) (lowers) · Item 20 exit rate (lowers) · Royalty rate (raises). Too few seasoned SBA loans to check the score — read it as a band. A linear scorecard trained on brands' vintage-adjusted SBA loss records; full spec and cross-validated accuracy on the methodology page. A score is context, not a verdict.
Public records
Bankruptcy, closure & federal court records · coverage is selective · dockets are not scored
We have no verified public-record signals published for PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE. This is not evidence that no events exist. Check PACER, the FDD's Item 3 (litigation) and Item 4 (bankruptcy), and recent news yourself.
9 questions to ask a PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE franchisee
Built from this brand's own disclosures · take it to your validation calls
The franchisor will give you a list of owners to call. Most buyers ask whether they like it. These questions come from what PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE has disclosed. Each one carries the number it came from, so you can check the answer against the record.
- 01
PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE’s own Item 20 shows 32 of 1,105 franchised outlets left the system in fiscal 2025 — about 2.9%. Do you know any of those owners, and do you know why they left?
A franchisor will call these “transitions.” An owner three doors down usually knows whether they sold at a profit or handed the keys back.
FDD Item 20 · FY2025
- 02
3 units transferred to new owners in fiscal 2025. When you look at those, were they people cashing out a good business — or getting out of a bad one?
Item 20 counts transfers as neutral, but a transfer can be a good sale or a reluctant exit — the filing does not say which.
FDD Item 20 · FY2025
- 03
You pay 5.0% royalty on gross sales, plus the ad fund, before any of your own costs. On your actual revenue last year, what did you take home as the owner — not revenue, take-home?
Royalty is charged on sales, not profit. This is the number the brochure never shows and the one your life actually runs on.
FDD Item 6
- 04
PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE makes an earnings claim in Item 19. Does your unit look like that number — and do you know which units they included to build it?
Item 19 is legal to build from a flattering subset. Ask whether they excluded new units, closed units, or company stores.
FDD Item 19 · 2026
- 05
How many months did it take to cover your own costs, and how much cash did you burn getting there?
Ramp-to-breakeven working capital is the most underestimated line in any franchise purchase, and the most common reason otherwise-good units fail.
Not disclosed in any FDD — ask an owner
- 06
Item 3 discloses 2 legal matters. Do you know what those were about, and were any brought by franchisees?
Franchisee-brought suits over territory, fees or support tell you how the franchisor behaves when there's a disagreement.
FDD Item 3 · 2026
- 07
What does the franchisor charge for that you didn't expect — required tech fees, mandatory remodels, approved-supplier pricing?
Required spending appears across Items 6, 8 and 11 rather than in one place, so buyers routinely miss the total.
FDD Items 6, 8, 11
- 08
If your agreement came up for renewal tomorrow at current terms, would you sign again?
The single most predictive question you can ask. A hesitation is the answer.
Ask every owner you speak to
- 09
Who else should I call — including someone who left?
The franchisor's list is curated by definition. Former franchisees are where the unflattering truth lives, and current owners usually know how to reach them.
Ask every owner you speak to
Want this as a checklist you can take to the calls?
I'll email you the printable version, and tell you if PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE’s numbers move — a new filing, a rising exit rate, a distress signal. Unsubscribe in one click.
A broker is usually paid by the franchisor to place you. I'm paid only by you, never by a franchisor you're considering — and the job is pressure-testing PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE’s numbers, including talking you out of a bad deal.
This page is what buyers see before they call you for validation. If the record above is wrong — or right in a way the numbers can't show — say so. Franchisors: send corrections with the page reference and we will review them against the filing and update or annotate the page. Corrections are checked against the filings; nothing you write is published with your name unless you agree to it.
PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE franchise questions, answered from the filings
How many PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE franchised outlets left the system last year?
In PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE's latest FDD Item 20 (fiscal 2025), 32 of 1,105 franchised outlets left the system — an exit rate of 2.9% — compared with a 4.6% median across 133 comparable systems (food & dining) tracked here. That counts terminations, non-renewals, and "ceased operations — other reasons" as the franchisor reported them; it excludes transfers to new owners. The FDD does not say why each outlet left, and an exit is not the same as a failure.
How much does a PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE franchise cost?
Per PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE's 2026 FDD, buying in requires an initial franchise fee of $50,000 (Item 5) and a total initial investment of $1.3M–$4.6M (Item 7).
What royalty does PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE charge?
PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE charges an ongoing royalty of 5.0% of gross sales, per Item 6 of its 2026 FDD.
Does PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE disclose earnings (Item 19)?
Yes — PANERA BREAD BAKERY-CAFE makes a financial performance representation in Item 19 of its 2026 FDD. Read it closely: franchisors choose which units and which metrics to include.